Whiffing on a mid or late-round pick is par for the course in fantasy football. However, drafting an early-round player who substantially underperforms their average draft position (ADP) can derail a fantasy football campaign. It’s important to avoid these fantasy football busts in order to have a successful season.
Busts are an unfortunate reality, and avoiding them can be the difference between losing an uphill battle all year and winning a fantasy football championship. To qualify as a possible fantasy football bust, a player had to have a top-48 ADP, meaning the player is picked in the first four rounds of 12-team fantasy football leagues. The following five players aren’t bums by any stretch of the imagination, but the opportunity cost to pick them at their respective ADPs isn’t worth it. Here are five fantasy football draft busts to avoid at their current ADP.
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Garrett Wilson (NYJ – WR): 12.0 ADP/WR8
Garrett Wilson has unquestionably been saddled with a carousel of dreadful quarterbacks in his young career. Nevertheless, he must make a massive leap to award gamers for taking him at the back of the first round after taking a step back in his sophom*ore campaign.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 71 wideouts targeted at least 40 times in 2022, Wilson had their ninth-highest receiving grade (85.9) and was tied with Deebo Samuel for 25th in yards per route run (1.85 Y/RR). In 2023, Wilson was 42nd in PFF’s receiving grade (73.5) and 52nd in yards per route run (1.55 Y/RR) among 71 wide receivers targeted at least 40 times.
Aaron Rodgers must clear a low bar to be an improvement over Mike White, Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. Still, Wilson is drafted as if he’s peak Davante Adams catching passes from a back-to-back MVP winner. In reality, Rodgers is a 40-year-old quarterback returning from a ruptured Achilles after an underwhelming final season in Green Bay.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Packers were tied for 11th in yards per play (5.5) and 14th in scoring offense (21.8 points per game) in 2022 before tying for sixth in yards per play (5.6) and 12th in scoring offense (22.5 points per game) in Jordan Love‘s first season as a starting quarterback. Furthermore, per Sumer Sports, Green Bay was 11th in Expected Points Added per Play (0.02 EPA/Play) and sixth in success rate (46.2%) in 2022. In 2023, the Packers were tied for fifth in EPA/Play (0.07) and eighth in success rate (45.1%) in 2023. Wilson is an easier pick to stomach in the back half of the second round, albeit still with bust potential at that point if Rodgers can’t recapture even his 2022 pre-Achilles injury form.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET – RB): 12.3 ADP/RB4
Jahmyr Gibbs had a productive rookie season for the Lions. However, he was part of a two-headed backfield monster, and David Montgomery hasn’t gone anywhere. Gibbs had a 57% snap share in the regular season, and Montgomery had a 48% snap share.
Gibbs was the RB10 in half-PPR points (216.1) and the RB11 in half-PPR points per game (14.4) in the two-back arrangement. Montgomery wasn’t a slouch, either. As a result, in 15 games when both were healthy, including the postseason, Montgomery had 233 rush attempts for 1,075 rushing yards, 4.6 yards per carry, 3.09 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A), 14 rushing touchdowns and 51 missed tackles forced (MTF) versus 157 rush attempts for 789 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry, 2.90 YCO/A, 11 rushing touchdowns and 37 MTF for Gibbs, per PFF.
In those 15 games, Gibbs did have the edge through the air, running 282 routes and hauling in 48 receptions for 313 receiving yards and one touchdown on 67 targets compared to 184 routes, 23 targets, 19 receptions and 123 receiving yards for Montgomery.
Unfortunately for Gibbs, Montgomery was used more near the end zone. In the regular season last year, Montgomery had 29 rush attempts, 10 rushing touchdowns and zero targets inside the 10-yard line, and Gibbs had 20 rush attempts, four rushing touchdowns, five targets, two receptions and one receiving touchdown. According to Sumer Sports, the bruising Montgomery had more EPA per rush (0.05 versus -0.03) and a higher success rate (44.3% compared to 37.4%) than Gibbs. The Lions don’t have any incentive to fix what’s not broken with their high-powered rushing attack, capping Gibbs’s ceiling if Montgomery stays healthy. Gibbs is too expensive in half-PPR leagues for a running back without a clear path to a workhorse workload.
Travis Etienne (JAC – RB): 26.3 ADP/RB9
Travis Etienne was the 21st-highest scorer and the RB3 in half-PPR scoring in 2023. He was also tied for the RB6 in half-PPR points per game. So, through that lens, there’s nothing wrong with Etienne’s ADP and ranking among running backs.
Yet, Etienne’s profile is flimsy and dependent on retaining a workhorse profile. Per Sumer Sports, among 57 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in the regular season in 2023, Etienne was tied for 41st in EPA/rush (-0.13), tied for 45th in success rate (34.8%), tied for 48th in tackle-for-a-loss rate (11.2%) and tied for 45h in explosive-run rate (4.5%). Etienne was also tied for the seventh-fewest average defenders in the box (6.53), making his lack of success even more alarming.
Additionally, among 59 running backs with at least 75 attempts, including the postseason, Etienne was 19th in PFF’s rushing grade and tied for 29th in yards after contact per attempt (2.87 YCO/A). The speedy running back was an above-average pass-catching back but not elite, ranking 12th in PFF’s receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run (1.18 Y/RR) among 44 running backs targeted at least 30 times. Josh Jacobs (28.7 ADP), Derrick Henry (33.3 ADP) and Isiah Pacheco (41.3 ADP) are more appealing picks irrespective of the ADP value, and Rachaad White (40.0 ADP) and James Cook (44.7 ADP) are in the same tier and relative values compared to Etienne’s ADP.
Stefon Diggs (HOU – WR): 27.0 ADP/WR15
Last season, Stefon Diggs was the WR10 in half-PPR scoring and the WR14 in half-PPR points per game (13.0) among wideouts with at least 10 games played. Unfortunately, Diggs’s performance cratered down the stretch, and he went from an alpha target hog in an underwhelming pass-catching corps in Buffalo to a jam-packed group in Houston. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are arguably better than Diggs at this point in the grizzled veteran’s career, and Dalton Schultz can infringe upon Digg’s intermediate targets, too.
Revisiting Diggs’s collapse, he scored more than 6.8 half-PPR points only twice in his final eight games last season. Among 54 wide receivers targeted at least 40 times from Week 10 through the Super Bowl, Diggs was 43rd in PFF’s receiving grade and tied for 47th in yards per route run (1.30 Y/RR). Interestingly, Collins was tied for first in PFF’s receiving grade and first in yards per route run (3.61 Y/RR) in that period. Moreover, among 71 wideouts targeted at least 40 times in the 2023 regular season and postseason, Dell had PFF’s 15th-highest receiving grade and the 14th-most yards per route run (2.22 Y/RR), besting Diggs in both metrics.
Diggs can pop up for an occasional stellar performance in Houston’s ascending offense, and C.J. Stroud can support multiple fantasy-relevant pass-catching weapons. Still, Diggs is unlikely to be consistent in a crowded group of weapons, and Diggs wouldn’t be the first aging wide receiver who failed to turn things around after their performance slipped. Finally, the pie might also be smaller in his new home. According to the nfelo app, the Bills were eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (0.4% PROE) in 2023 despite cranking up the running game down the stretch, and the Texans were tied for 19th (-2.6% PROE).
Cooper Kupp (LAR – WR): 36.3 ADP/WR21
It’s better to get out a year early on an aging superstar than a year too late. While that can apply to the aforementioned Diggs, it also applies to Cooper Kupp. He’s played only 21 games because of injuries since a historic career year in 2021.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Kupp had a career-low for yards per target (7.8 Y/Tgt) in 2023. He was also 47th in PFF’s receiving grade among wide receivers targeted at least 40 times, earning the lowest grade in his career. In addition, Kupp’s 23.1% targets per route run was his lowest rate since 2018.
Kupp also has a Puka Nacua problem. The Rams struck gold in the fifth round of last year’s NFL Draft. Nacua took the NFL by storm and is the new top dog in LA’s passing attack. Kupp is on the wrong side of 30, and there’s a cap on his ceiling with Nacua in the fold. The risk that injuries and Father Time have taken their toll on Kupp isn’t worth the reward at his ADP in half-PPR managed leagues.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
